Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $592,144$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(7.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{670,220.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(670,220.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,264$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(144 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,716.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 133.6)}}\) (asimptote \(22,716.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $94,412$ on 2020-08-18

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,253$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(97 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,378.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 126.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,378.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(0.995 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 129.2)}}\) (asimptote \(51.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $827$ on 2020-08-18

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,374$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(981 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(54.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,214.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 68.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,214.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $59$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(10.8 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.3}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 58.0)}}\) (asimptote \(58.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-08-18

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,821$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(226 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,869.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 125.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,869.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(6.52 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 86.1)}}\) (asimptote \(106.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,556$ on 2020-08-18

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $96,753$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(7.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,717.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.4)}}\) (asimptote \(99,717.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,184$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(325 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,639.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,639.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,007$ on 2020-08-18

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,721$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(888 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,698.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 88.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,698.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $243$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(25.5 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{255.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 91.2)}}\) (asimptote \(255.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $596$ on 2020-08-18

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,789$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(385 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,519.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 88.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,519.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $157$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(15.8 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 76.6)}}\) (asimptote \(155.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $581$ on 2020-08-18

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,444$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{147,903.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 196.8)}}\) (asimptote \(147,903.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,391$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(243 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,568.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 89.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,568.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,400$ on 2020-08-18

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Djibouti recovered 96%
Congo (Kinshasa) recovered 90%
Mauritania recovered 80%
Ghana recovered 77%
Madagascar recovered 71%
Zambia recovered 58%
Egypt recovered 46%
South Africa recovered 46%

Ghana⮸

Population $31,072,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,993$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,017.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 121.7)}}\) (asimptote \(61,017.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $248$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(10.9 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{304.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 116.8)}}\) (asimptote \(304.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,949$ on 2020-08-18

Madagascar⮸

Population $27,691,018$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,009$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(133 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,610.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 117.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16,610.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $173$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(7.11 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 70.3)}}\) (asimptote \(262.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,069$ on 2020-08-18

Zambia⮸

Population $18,383,955$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,981$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(50.7 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $264$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{338.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 113.8)}}\) (asimptote \(338.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $941$ on 2020-08-18